Pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain comparison with delta variant strain and seasonal influenza in Japan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59キーワード:
excess mortality、 COVID-19、 all cause death、 stochastic frontier estimation、 NIID model、 Tokyo、 Japan抄録
Background: No remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan.
Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model.
Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through the April 2022 for the whole of Japan and up through November 2021 for Tokyo.
Results: Results in Japan show huge number of excess mortality, up to 10 thousands in the two months, in August and September, 2021. On the other hand, in Tokyo, we also substantial excess mortality at the same time, which corresponds to be approximately 9% of the baseline at that time. Moreover, we found the largest number of excess mortality in a month since COVID-19 emerging in February and March 2022 in the whole of Japan, when one month later since the number of newly confirmed patients with omicron variant strain reached the peak.
Discussion and Conclusion: The result in February and March 2022 may indicate the pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain was comparable delta variant strain and stronger than seasonal influenza.
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投稿日時: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC
公開日時: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — 2022-06-23 08:46:38 UTCに更新
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改版理由
We extend data adding one month.ライセンス
Copyright（c）2022
Kurita, Junko
Tamie Sugawara
Yasushi Ohkusa
この作品は、Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licenseの下でライセンスされています。
