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Preprint / Version 2

Pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain comparison with delta variant strain and seasonal influenza in Japan

##article.authors##

  • Junko Kurita Department of Nursing, Faculty of Sport and Health Science, Daito Bunka University
  • Tamie Sugawara Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
  • Yasushi Ohkusa Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59

Keywords:

excess mortality, COVID-19, all cause death, stochastic frontier estimation, NIID model, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract

Background: No remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan.

Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model.

Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through the February 2022 for the whole of Japan and up through November, 2021 for Tokyo.

Results: Results in Japan show huge number of excess mortality, up to 10 thousands in the two months, in August and September, 2021. On the other hand, in Tokyo, we also substantial excess mortality in the same time, which corresponds to be approximately 9% of the baseline at that time. Moreover, we found the largest number of excess mortality in a month since COVID-19 emerging in February 2022 in the whole of Japan, when one month later since the number of newly confirmed patients with omicron variant strain reached the peak.

Discussion and Conclusion: The result in February 2022 may indicate the pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain was comparable delta variant strain and stronger than seasonal influenza. It will be stronger pathogenicity than delta variant strain if the excess mortality will be observed in n March or April, 2022.

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Sugawara T, Ohkusa Y. Comparison of Models for Excess Mortality of Influenza Applied to Japan. Journal of Biosciences and Medicines, 2019, 7, 13-23. doi:10.4236/jbm.2019.76002

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Submitted: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC

Published: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — Updated on 2022-06-23 08:46:38 UTC

Versions

Reason(s) for revision

We extend data adding one month.
Section
General Medicine, Social Medicine, & Nursing Sciences