Pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain comparison with delta variant strain and seasonal influenza in Japan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59Keywords:
excess mortality, COVID-19, all cause death, stochastic frontier estimation, NIID model, Tokyo, JapanAbstract
Background: No remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan.
Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model.
Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through the February 2022 for the whole of Japan and up through November, 2021 for Tokyo.
Results: Results in Japan show huge number of excess mortality, up to 10 thousands in the two months, in August and September, 2021. On the other hand, in Tokyo, we also substantial excess mortality in the same time, which corresponds to be approximately 9% of the baseline at that time. Moreover, we found the largest number of excess mortality in a month since COVID-19 emerging in February 2022 in the whole of Japan, when one month later since the number of newly confirmed patients with omicron variant strain reached the peak.
Discussion and Conclusion: The result in February 2022 may indicate the pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain was comparable delta variant strain and stronger than seasonal influenza. It will be stronger pathogenicity than delta variant strain if the excess mortality will be observed in n March or April, 2022.
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Submitted: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC
Published: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — Updated on 2022-06-23 08:46:38 UTC
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Reason(s) for revision
We extend data adding one month.License
Copyright (c) 2022
Junko Kurita
Tamie Sugawara
Yasushi Ohkusa
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
