プレプリント / バージョン11

Excess mortality during and after SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Japan: Updated until November 2023

##article.authors##

  • Kurita, Junko Department of Nursing, Faculty of Sport and Health Science, Daito Bunka University
  • Sugawara, Tamie Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
  • Ohkusa, Yasushi Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59

キーワード:

excess mortality、 COVID-19、 all cause death、 stochastic frontier estimation、 NIID model、 Tokyo、 Japan

抄録

Background: On May 8, 2023, COVID-19 had been reclassified from notifiable diseases to disease monitored by sentinel surveillance defined in the Infectious Diseases Control Law. Accordingly, response for pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan had been discontinued.

Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model for all cause of death to evaluate pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 after pandemic of COVID-19.

Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through November, 2023 for the whole of Japan and up through September, 2023 for Tokyo.

Results: After July, 2023, excess morality was observed while response for pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan had been discontinued. These were 1867, 10613, 10934, and 6918 excess morality and these mean 1.64, 9.19, 9.80, and 5.67% of the base line. Even in Tokyo, 365 excess mortality which means 3.65% of the baseline was observed.

Discussion and Conclusion: Excess mortality while response for pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan had been discontinued were smaller than excess morality in 2022, however, larger than in 2020 and 2021. Therefore, it was not able to ignore.

利益相反に関する開示

No author has any conflict of interest, financial or otherwise, to declare in relation to this study.

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投稿日時: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC

公開日時: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — 2024-02-28 05:19:23 UTCに更新

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改版理由

The study period has been extended.
研究分野
一般医学・社会医学・看護学