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Pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain comparison with delta variant strain and seasonal influenza in Japan

##article.authors##

  • Kurita, Junko Department of Nursing, Faculty of Sport and Health Science, Daito Bunka University
  • Tamie Sugawara Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
  • Yasushi Ohkusa Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59

キーワード:

excess mortality、 COVID-19、 all cause death、 stochastic frontier estimation、 NIID model、 Tokyo、 Japan

抄録

Background: No remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan.

Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model.

Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through the April 2022 for the whole of Japan and up through November 2021 for Tokyo.

Results: Results in Japan show huge number of excess mortality, up to 10 thousands in the two months, in August and September, 2021. On the other hand, in Tokyo, we also substantial excess mortality at the same time, which corresponds to be approximately 9% of the baseline at that time. Moreover, we found the largest number of excess mortality in a month since COVID-19 emerging in February and March 2022 in the whole of Japan, when one month later since the number of newly confirmed patients with omicron variant strain reached the peak.

Discussion and Conclusion: The result in February and March 2022 may indicate the pathogenicity of the omicron variant strain was comparable delta variant strain and stronger than seasonal influenza.

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引用文献

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公開済


投稿日時: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC

公開日時: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — 2022-06-23 08:46:38 UTCに更新

バージョン

改版理由

We extend data adding one month.
研究分野
一般医学・社会医学・看護学