Excess mortality during and after SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Japan: Updated until November 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59キーワード:
excess mortality、 COVID-19、 all cause death、 stochastic frontier estimation、 NIID model、 Tokyo、 Japan抄録
Background: On May 8, 2023, COVID-19 had been reclassified from notifiable diseases to disease monitored by sentinel surveillance defined in the Infectious Diseases Control Law. Accordingly, response for pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan had been discontinued.
Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model for all cause of death to evaluate pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 after pandemic of COVID-19.
Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through November, 2023 for the whole of Japan and up through September, 2023 for Tokyo.
Results: After July, 2023, excess morality was observed while response for pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan had been discontinued. These were 1867, 10613, 10934, and 6918 excess morality and these mean 1.64, 9.19, 9.80, and 5.67% of the base line. Even in Tokyo, 365 excess mortality which means 3.65% of the baseline was observed.
Discussion and Conclusion: Excess mortality while response for pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan had been discontinued were smaller than excess morality in 2022, however, larger than in 2020 and 2021. Therefore, it was not able to ignore.
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No author has any conflict of interest, financial or otherwise, to declare in relation to this study.ダウンロード *前日までの集計結果を表示します
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投稿日時: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC
公開日時: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — 2024-02-28 05:19:23 UTCに更新
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The study period has been extended.ライセンス
Copyright（c）2022
Kurita, Junko
Sugawara, Tamie
Ohkusa, Yasushi
この作品は、Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licenseの下でライセンスされています。
