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Pathogenicity of sublineage BA.5, omicron variant strain comparison with other variant strains of SARS-Cov-2 and seasonal influenza in Japan: Updated until December 2022.

##article.authors##

  • Kurita, Junko Department of Nursing, Faculty of Sport and Health Science, Daito Bunka University
  • Tamie Sugawara Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
  • Yasushi Ohkusa Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.59

キーワード:

excess mortality、 COVID-19、 all cause death、 stochastic frontier estimation、 NIID model、 Tokyo、 Japan

抄録

Background: Sublineage BA.5 of omicron variant strain recorded the highest peak of morbidity and mortality confirmed with test per day in August for the former and September for the latter, 2022.

Object: We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model for all cause of death to evaluate pathogenicity of sublineage BA.5 of omicron variant strain.

Method: We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through the December, 2022 for the whole of Japan and up through October, 2022 for Tokyo.

Results: Results in Japan show that 18845, 14133, 8300, 6702 and 18426 excess mortality was observed in August to December 2022,which means 16.8, 13.0,7.0 and 13.7 % of the baseline and approximately 70% of total excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even in Tokyo, it was 3742 and 36% of total of excess mortality in this pandemic, between August and October, 2022.

Discussion and Conclusion: Results may indicate that its pathogenicity was much stronger than other variant strain and seasonal influenza.

利益相反に関する開示

No author has any conflict of interest, financial or otherwise, to declare in relation to this study.

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引用文献

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投稿日時: 2022-04-27 04:32:31 UTC

公開日時: 2022-05-02 09:17:47 UTC — 2023-03-15 00:59:05 UTCに更新

バージョン

改版理由

The study period has been extended.
研究分野
一般医学・社会医学・看護学