A Mathematical model for the Pattern of COVID-19 Post-Vaccination Mortality and Excess Mortality

##article.authors##

Nakamura, Takashi Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Tokyo University of Science

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.352

キーワード:

Erlang distribution、 Excess Mortality、 Model for the pattern of COVID-19 post-vaccination mortality

抄録

Using the Erlang distribution, this article gives a mathematical model for the pattern of post-vaccination mortality and discusses excess mortality based on this model.

利益相反に関する開示

The authors have no conflicts of interest directly relevant to the content of this article.

ダウンロード *前日までの集計結果を表示します

ダウンロード実績データは、公開の翌日以降に作成されます。

引用文献

Jae Yeong Cho, Kye Hun Kim, Nuri Lee, Soo Hyeon Cho, Seung Yun Kim, Eun Kyoung Kim, Jae-Hyeong Park, Eui-Young Choi, Jin-Oh Choi, Hyukjin Park, Hyung Yoon Kim, Hyun Ju Yoon, Youngkeun Ahn, Myung Ho Jeong Jeong Gwan Cho, COVID-19 vaccination-related myocarditis: a Korean nationwide study, European Heart Journal, ehad339.

Masanori Fukushima, Yuriko Hirai, Eiji Nakatani and Tsutomu Nishimura, Overview of COVID-19 postvaccination mortality and pharmacoepidemiological evaluation: nation-wide view and a proposal, Clinical Evaluation. 2022;49(3):499-517.

Masanori Fukushima, Takayuki Kikuchi and Yuriko Hirai, Warnings and Requests to Coronavirus Vaccine Recipients and All Healthcare Providers -Based on the case of a healthy 28-year-old man who died suddenly of myocardial rhabdomyolysis 5 days after vaccination with the novel coronavirus vaccine, Clinical Evaluation. 2023;50(4):507-542.

Kiyoshi Ito, [Probability theory and I], Kakuritsuron to watashi (in Japanese), Iwanami Shoten, Publishers, (2010/9/15) ISBN 9784000052085.

Hideyuki Nushida, Asuka Ito, Hiromitsu Kurata, Hitomi Umemoto, Itsuo Tokunaga, Hirofumi Iseki, Akiyoshi Nishimura, A case of fatal multi-organ inflammation following COVID-19 vaccination, Legal Medicine, 63, July 2023, 102244.

Rosenblum HG, Gee J, Liu R, Marquez PL, Zhang B, Strid P, Abara WE, McNeil MM, Myers TR, Hause AM, Su JR, Markowitz LE, Shimabukuro TT, Shay DK. Safety of mRNA vaccines administered during the initial 6 months of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme: an observational study of reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and v-safe. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022 Jun;22(6):802–812.

Wikipedia, Erlang distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlang_distribution

Wikipedia, Exponential distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution

Wikipedia, Law of large numbers, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Wikipedia, Stirling's approximation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling's_approximation