A Mathematical Interpretation of the Pattern of COVID-19 Post-Vaccination Mortality and Excess Mortality

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Nakamura, Takashi Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Tokyo University of Science

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.352

キーワード:

Pattern of COVID-19 Post-Vaccination Mortality、 Erlang distribution、 Excess Mortality

抄録

Reference [1] presents a histogram with the number of days from COVID-19 vaccination to death on the horizontal axis and the number of deaths on the vertical axis, based on a report from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW). This article gives a mathematical interpretation of the histogram and discusses excess mortality based on this interpretation.

利益相反に関する開示

The authors have no conflicts of interest directly relevant to the content of this article.

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引用文献

Masanori Fukushima, Yuriko Hirai, Eiji Nakatani and Tsutomu Nishimura, Overview of COVID-19 postvaccination mortality and pharmacoepidemiological evaluation: nation-wide view and a proposal, Clinical Evaluation. 2022;49(3):499-517.

Masanori Fukushima, Takayuki Kikuchi and Yuriko Hirai, Warnings and Requests to Coronavirus Vaccine Recipients and All Healthcare Providers -Based on the case of a healthy 28-year-old man who died suddenly of myocardial rhabdomyolysis 5 days after vaccination with the novel coronavirus vaccine, Clinical Evaluation. 2023;50(4):507-542.

Kiyoshi Ito, [Probability theory and I], Kakuritsuron to watashi (in Japanese), Iwanami Shoten, Publishers, (2010/9/15) ISBN 9784000052085.

Wikipedia, Erlang distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlang_distribution

Wikipedia, Exponential distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution

Wikipedia, Stirling's approximation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling's_approximation