This is an outdated version published on 2023-10-20 05:53:23 UTC. Read the most recent version.
Preprint / Version 8

A Mathematical model for the Pattern of COVID-19 Post-Vaccination Mortality and Excess Mortality

##article.authors##

  • Takashi Nakamura Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Tokyo University of Science

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.352

Keywords:

Erlang distribution, Excess Mortality, Model for the pattern of COVID-19 post-vaccination mortality

Abstract

Using the Erlang distribution, this article gives a mathematical model for the pattern of post-vaccination mortality and discusses excess mortality based on this model.

Conflicts of Interest Disclosure

The authors have no conflicts of interest directly relevant to the content of this article.

Downloads *Displays the aggregated results up to the previous day.

Download data is not yet available.

References

Jae Yeong Cho, Kye Hun Kim, Nuri Lee, Soo Hyeon Cho, Seung Yun Kim, Eun Kyoung Kim, Jae-Hyeong Park, Eui-Young Choi, Jin-Oh Choi, Hyukjin Park, Hyung Yoon Kim, Hyun Ju Yoon, Youngkeun Ahn, Myung Ho Jeong Jeong Gwan Cho, COVID-19 vaccination-related myocarditis: a Korean nationwide study, European Heart Journal, ehad339.

Masanori Fukushima, Yuriko Hirai, Eiji Nakatani and Tsutomu Nishimura, Overview of COVID-19 postvaccination mortality and pharmacoepidemiological evaluation: nation-wide view and a proposal, Clinical Evaluation. 2022;49(3):499-517.

Masanori Fukushima, Takayuki Kikuchi and Yuriko Hirai, Warnings and Requests to Coronavirus Vaccine Recipients and All Healthcare Providers -Based on the case of a healthy 28-year-old man who died suddenly of myocardial rhabdomyolysis 5 days after vaccination with the novel coronavirus vaccine, Clinical Evaluation. 2023;50(4):507-542.

Nicolas Hulscher, Paul E. Alexander, Richard Amerling, Heather Gessling, Roger Hodkinson, William Makis, Harvey A. Risch, Mark Trozzi Peter A. McCullough, A Systematic Review of Autopsy Findings in Deaths after COVID-19 Vaccination, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8120771

Kiyoshi Ito, [Probability theory and I], Kakuritsuron to watashi (in Japanese), Iwanami Shoten, Publishers, (2010/9/15) ISBN 9784000052085.

Pascal Irrgang, Juliane Gerling, Katharina Kocher, Dennis Lapuente, Philipp Steininger, Katharina Habenicht, Monika Wytopil, Stephanie Beileke, Simon Sch"afer, Jahn Zhong, George Ssebyatika, Thomas Krey, Valeria Falcone, Christine Sch"ulein, Antonia Sophia Peter, Krystelle Nganou-Makamdop, Hartmut Hengel, J"urgen Held, Christian Bogdan, Klaus "Uberla, Kilian Schober, Thomas H Winkler, and Matthias Tenbusch, Class switch toward noninflammatory, spike-specific IgG4 antibodies after repeated SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination, Sci.~Immunol. 8, eade2798 (2023).

Hideyuki Nushida, Asuka Ito, Hiromitsu Kurata, Hitomi Umemoto, Itsuo Tokunaga, Hirofumi Iseki, Akiyoshi Nishimura, A case of fatal multi-organ inflammation following COVID-19 vaccination, Legal Medicine, 63, July 2023, 102244.

Rosenblum HG, Gee J, Liu R, Marquez PL, Zhang B, Strid P, Abara WE, McNeil MM, Myers TR, Hause AM, Su JR, Markowitz LE, Shimabukuro TT, Shay DK. Safety of mRNA vaccines administered during the initial 6 months of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme: an observational study of reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and v-safe. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022 Jun;22(6):802–812.

Wikipedia, Erlang distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlang_distribution

Wikipedia, Exponential distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution

Wikipedia, Law of large numbers, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Wikipedia, Stirling's approximation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling's_approximation

Downloads

Posted


Submitted: 2023-04-05 05:03:56 UTC

Published: 2023-04-06 02:49:10 UTC — Updated on 2023-10-20 05:53:23 UTC

Versions

Reason(s) for revision

Some sentences, Reference data 3 and Reference data [6] are added.
Section
Biology, Life Sciences & Basic Medicine