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A Mathematical Interpretation of the Pattern of COVID-19 Post-Vaccination Mortality and Excess Mortality

##article.authors##

  • Takashi Nakamura Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Tokyo University of Science

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.352

Keywords:

Pattern of COVID-19 Post-Vaccination Mortality, Erlang distribution, Excess Mortality

Abstract

Using the Erlang distribution, this article gives a mathematical interpretation of the pattern of post-vaccination mortality and discusses excess mortality based on this interpretation.

Conflicts of Interest Disclosure

The authors have no conflicts of interest directly relevant to the content of this article.

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References

Masanori Fukushima, Yuriko Hirai, Eiji Nakatani and Tsutomu Nishimura, Overview of COVID-19 postvaccination mortality and pharmacoepidemiological evaluation: nation-wide view and a proposal, Clinical Evaluation. 2022;49(3):499-517.

Masanori Fukushima, Takayuki Kikuchi and Yuriko Hirai, Warnings and Requests to Coronavirus Vaccine Recipients and All Healthcare Providers -Based on the case of a healthy 28-year-old man who died suddenly of myocardial rhabdomyolysis 5 days after vaccination with the novel coronavirus vaccine, Clinical Evaluation. 2023;50(4):507-542.

Kiyoshi Ito, [Probability theory and I], Kakuritsuron to watashi (in Japanese), Iwanami Shoten, Publishers, (2010/9/15) ISBN 9784000052085.

Rosenblum HG, Gee J, Liu R, Marquez PL, Zhang B, Strid P, Abara WE, McNeil MM, Myers TR, Hause

AM, Su JR, Markowitz LE, Shimabukuro TT, Shay DK. Safety of mRNA vaccines administered during

the initial 6 months of the US COVID-19 vaccination programme: an observational study of reports to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System and v-safe. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022 Jun;22(6):802–812.

Wikipedia, Erlang distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erlang_distribution

Wikipedia, Exponential distribution, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution

Wikipedia, Stirling's approximation, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling's_approximation

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Submitted: 2023-04-05 05:03:56 UTC

Published: 2023-04-06 02:49:10 UTC — Updated on 2023-05-19 08:52:56 UTC

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Section
Biology, Life Sciences & Basic Medicine