新しい簡易再生産数推定法：既存の推定法との比較・評価
##article.authors##
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穴澤, 活郎
東京大学大学院新領域創成科学研究科
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0431-902X
https://researchmap.jp/000634
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.551キーワード:
再生産数、 世代時間、 ガンマ分布、 オイラー・ロトカ式、 新型コロナウイルス抄録
本研究では、感染症における再生産数の簡易推定方法について複数提案し、それらの有効性と留意点を比較検討した。世代時間分布を指数分布、あるいはデルタ分布で仮定した方法では、再生産数を感染症の世代時間の平均値と新規感染者数の情報のみで算出できる簡便性があるが、前者は世代時間分布の分散が小さいときには過小評価を示し、後者は世代時間分布の分散が大きいときには過大評価を示す。また、正規分布を仮定したものでは、成長速度によっては過小評価を与えることがある。これらに対して、ガンマ分布で仮定した推定法は、いずれの場合であっても信頼の置ける値を与える。これらの推定式は感染症の世代時間分布の特徴を把握した上で適切に使用しなければならない。
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穴澤, 活郎
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