Evaluating a novel reproduction number estimation method: A comparative analysis
##article.authors##
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Katsruo ANAZAWA
The University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0431-902X
https://researchmap.jp/000634
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.551Keywords:
Reproduction number, generation time, gamma distribution, Euler-Lotka equation, SARS-CoV-2Abstract
This paper presents practical methodologies and demonstrations for determining reproduction number, offering valuable insights to researchers and public health officials. Multiple approaches for simplified estimation techniques are proposed for the reproduction number of infectious diseases, and their effectiveness is compared. Methods assuming either exponential or delta distributions for the generation time of infectious diseases offer convenience by enabling the calculation of the reproduction number based solely on the mean of the generation time and number of new infection cases. However, the former tends to underestimate the reproduction number when the variance of the generation time distribution is small, while the latter tends to overestimate it when the variance is large. Conversely, the method assuming a normal distribution may underestimate the reproduction number depending on the growth rate. However, the estimation method assuming a gamma distribution provides reliable values in all scenarios. These estimation formulas should be applied judiciously, considering the characteristics of the generation time distribution of infectious diseases.
Conflicts of Interest Disclosure
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Published: 2023-11-20 00:34:44 UTC
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