プレプリント / バージョン1

Association of sightseeing tourists and COVID-19 outbreak: A case study of a hot spring resort

##article.authors##

  • Kurita, Junko Department of Nursing, Faculty of Sport and Health Science, Daito Bunka University
  • Iwasaki, Yoshitaro Iwasaki Industrial Corporation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.346

キーワード:

COVID-19、 hotel visitors、 hot spring resort、 effective reproduction number、 sightseeing tourism

抄録

Background: Long-distance travel for sightseeing, which was believed to have spread the COVID-19 outbreak, was banned until 2022. Nevertheless, no report has described a detailed examination of that belief and policy.

Object: This study was conducted to confirm the effects of long distance travel on infectivity at a hot spring resort.

Method: We used a unique dataset including the daily numbers of visitors at three major hotels in Ibusuki city to evaluate how sightseeing tourism affected the COVID-19 effective reproduction number and newly confirmed patients. Study periods were January 25 through August 31, 2022 for the effective reproduction number and from August 19, 2020 through September 20, 2022 for newly confirmed patients.

Results: Neither measure of infectivity was found to be significantly associated with tourism, as represented by hotel visitors.

Discussion and Conclusion: Estimation results demonstrated that sightseeing tourists might not have affected the COVID-19 outbreak.

利益相反に関する開示

No author has any conflict of interest, financial or otherwise, to declare in relation to this study.

ダウンロード *前日までの集計結果を表示します

ダウンロード実績データは、公開の翌日以降に作成されます。

引用文献

Anzai A, Nishiura H. “Go To Travel” Campaign and Travel-Associated Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases: A Descriptive Analysis, July-August 2020. J Clin Med. 2021;10:398.

Kurita J, Sugawara T, Ohkusa Y. Estimating Event Ban Effects on COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan. Journal of Health Science and Development 2021;4. https://www.innovationinfo.org/articles/JHSD/JHSD-137.pdf

Kurita J, Sugawara T, Ohkusa Y. Infectivity of omicron BA.5 comparison with original strain and other mutated strain of SARS-Cov-2 in Japan. https://jxiv.jst.go.jp/index.php/jxiv/preprint/view/123

Kurita J, Iwasaki Y. Did Visitors for Sightseeing Actually Spread COVID-19 Outbreak dominated the original strain in Japan? Ex Post Evaluation for Banning of Long Distance Travel, https://jxiv.jst.go.jp/index.php/jxiv/preprint/view/226

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Epidemiological update: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sub-lineages BA.4 and BA.5. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-sars-cov-2-omicron-sub-lineages-ba4-and-ba5 [accessed on August 22, 2022]

National Institute of Infectious Diseases. Updated Situation of COVID-19 Outbreak (July 13,2022) https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/ja/2019-ncov/11309-covid19-ab90th.html (in Japanese) [accessed on August 20, 2022]

The Nippon Communications Foundation, Japan to Suspend Go To Travel Program Entirely Politics Dec 15, 2020 [accessed on November 22,2022] https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020121400645/japan-to-suspend-go-to-travel-program-entirely.html

Shi P, Dong Y, Yan H, Zhao C, Li X, Liu W, He M, Tang S, Xi S. Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Sci Total Environ. 2020;728:138890.

Tobias A, Molina T. Is temperature reducing the transmission of COVID-19? Environ Res. 2020;186:109553.

Yao Y, Pan J, Liu Z, Meng X, Wang W, Kan H, Wang W. No association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities. Eur Respir J. 2020;55:2000517.

Walrand S. Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor. Scientific Reports volume 11, Article number: 1981 (2021) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-w

Kurita J, Sugawara T, Ohkusa Y. Mobility data can reveal the entire COVID1-19 outbreak course in Japan. MEDRXIV/2020/081315 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20081315v3

Bergman N, Fishman R. Mobility Reduction and Covid-19 Transmission Rates.doi:

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, Unwin HJT, Mellan TA, Coupland H, Whittaker C, Zhu H, Berah T, Eaton JW, Monod M, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team; Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Vollmer MAC, Ferguson NM, Okell LC, Bhatt S. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe. Nature 2020;584(7820):257-61. doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7.

Li Y, Campbell H, Kulkarni D, Harpur A, Nundy M, Wang X, Nair H, for theUsher Network for COVID-19 Evidence Reviews (UNCOVER) group. The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries. Lancet Infect Dis. 2021;21:193-202. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30785-4?

Larrosa JMC. SARS-CoV-2 in Argentina: Lockdown, mobility, and contagion. J Med Virol. 2020. doi: 10.1002/jmv.26659.

Minami Nipon Shinbun Co.Ltd. Situation of COVID-19 infection by city. Minami Nipon Shinbun (in Japanese).

Leung K, Shum MHH, Leung GM, Lam TTY, Wu JT. Early transmissibility assessment of the N501Y mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom, October to November 2020. Euro. Surveill. 2021;26:2002106. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.26.1.2002106.

Graham MS, Sudre CH, May A, Antonelli M, Murray B, Varsavsky T, Klaser K, Canas LS, Molteni E, Modat M, Drew DA, Nguyen LH, Polidori L, Selvachandran S, Hu C, Capdevila J; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Hammers A, Chan AT, Wolf J, Spector TD, Steves CJ, Ourselin S. Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study. Lancet Public Health. 2021;6:e335-45.

Davies NG, Abbott S, Barnard RC, Jarvis CI, Kucharski AJ, Munday JD, Pearson CAB, Russell TW, Tully DC, Washburne AD, Wenseleers T, Gimma A, Waites W, Wong KLM, van Zandvoort K, Silverman JD; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Diaz-Ordaz K, Keogh R, Eggo RM, Funk S, Jit M, Atkins KE, Edmunds WJ. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science. 2021;372(6538):eabg3055. doi: 10.1126/science.abg3055.

Zhao S, Lou J, Cao L, Zheng H, Chong MKC, Chen Z, Chan RWY, Zee BCY, Chan PKS, Wang MH. Quantifying the transmission advantage associated with N501Y substitution of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK: an early data-driven analysis. J Travel Med. 2021;28:taab011.

ダウンロード

公開済


投稿日時: 2023-03-31 08:00:42 UTC

公開日時: 2023-04-04 01:23:56 UTC
研究分野
一般医学・社会医学・看護学