Food procurement of staple cereals for world major cities in 2050

Toshichika  Iizumi; Takahiro  Takimoto; Michiya  Hayashi; Hideo  Shiogama; Shinichiro  Fujimori; Tomoko  Hasegawa

doi:10.51094/jxiv.1199

##article.authors##

Toshichika Iizumi Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization https://researchmap.jp/read0139820
Takahiro Takimoto Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization https://researchmap.jp/takit
Michiya Hayashi Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies https://researchmap.jp/hayashi_michiya
Hideo Shiogama Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies https://researchmap.jp/shiogama
Shinichiro Fujimori Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University https://researchmap.jp/fujimori.shinichiro
Tomoko Hasegawa Research Organization of Science and Technology, Ritsumeikan University https://researchmap.jp/7000029367

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.1199

キーワード:

food procurment、 food-miles、 cities、 global、 future projection

抄録

Cities are dependent on food transported domestically or internationally. However, little is known about how the burden of transporting food to cities will changes under future socio-economic and climatic conditions. Here we present the current transport loads of major commodities (wheat and rice) and their projections in 2050 for 208 world’s major cities, using food-miles as a metric. The estimated freight transport routes and resulting distance-sufficiency curves characterized the cities well and provided insights to improve the robustness of food procurement. The least food-miles required to achieve 70% of the city’s wheat (rice) demand in 2050 were projected to increase in 68 (85) cities and decrease in 61 (54) cities, compared to the variations in food-miles associated with the current natural climate variability, with 79 (54) cities remaining unchanged. These findings provide city-specific information that ultimately helps to plan for more robust food procurement in the context of climate-resilient cities.

利益相反に関する開示

The authors declare no competing interests.

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