The Economic Evaluation of Tight Oil Development under Uncertainty: Example of Development in China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.7Keywords:
tight oil, economic evaluation, uncertainty, optimizationAbstract
Economic evaluation plays an important role in tight oil development, and it is a common issue in the oil industry to conduct a reasonable and convincing economic evaluation. In this study, an improved analytical method using the Net Present Value method and real options method is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the economic efficiency of tight oil development. The economics of tight oil development is influenced by uncertainties such as geological factors, technical factors, and external factors including policy factors, resulting in multiple effects. According to the results of the analysis, the improvement of the economic efficiency of the tight oil development contributes to the progress of the development technology, and if the progress of the development technology is realized, the further enhanced effect can be obtained. Also, preferential policies are important for tight oil development and have different promotion effects depending on the development areas. The results of the analysis in this study are not limited to tight oil development in China but may lead to similar considerations and conclusions regarding unconventional oil resource development projects in other regions.
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Submitted: 2022-03-24 01:57:04 UTC
Published: 2022-03-28 09:48:51 UTC
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