Diversity evaluation for power system operation based on weather forecast information considering uncertainty

Abstract

In recent years, a large scale of renewable energy (RE) such as photovoltaic (PV) power generation has been introduced to the power grid. As the output of RE fluctuates due to weather conditions, various difficulties occur in the operation of the power grid. One of them is grid congestion, in which transmission lines and transformers become overloaded. Thus the operation must be planned to avoid grid congestion based on the forecasted values of the RE output. However, the prediction of the RE output is usually accompanied by errors. Therefore, it is also important to operate the grid taking into account the uncertainty of the forecasted values. In addition, PV output has a strong correlation with solar radiation and it fluctuates depending on the amount of clouds in the atmosphere. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize meteorological forecast information. Recently, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started to distribute the Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) as weather forecast information that takes uncertainty into account. In this paper, we utilize the MEPS information to evaluate the diversity of grid operation by using optimal power flow considering the uncertainty.