Infection Risk Assessment of COVID-19 at Graduation and Entrance Ceremonies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.342Keywords:
Graduation Ceremonies, Entrance Ceremonies, Infection Risk Assessment, COVID-19Abstract
With the purpose of evaluating the transmission risk of novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and the effectiveness of countermeasures at school graduation and entrance ceremonies, this study examined various event conditions during a assumed graduation ceremony attended by 865 participants, including singing, diploma conferment, and ceremonial address, and built an infection risk evaluation model that takes into account the effectiveness of countermeasures such as mask wearing during the ceremony. In order to evaluate the relative risk of the graduation ceremony, a comparison was made with the infection risk of the entrance ceremony which was assumed and evaluated to be based on the same concept mentioned above.
With the conditions assumed in this study, the average risk of infection per asymptomatic infected person (asymptomatic infectious carrier) attending a graduation ceremony was 0.00004 (4.0 per 100,000; 0.035 for a graduation ceremony attended by 865 people) when no preventive measures such as wearing a mask were taken. The average risk of infection per asymptomatically infected person attending an entrance ceremony with the same conditions mentioned above was 0.000012 (1.2 per 100,000; 0.010 for a graduation ceremony attended by 865 people) when no measures were taken, suggesting that the average risk of infection was higher at graduation ceremonies. This may have resulted from the presence or absence of opportunities for face-to-face, close conversations, such as during the diploma conferment, as well as differences in the total time of the ceremony. Singing and diploma conferment were the events with the highest risk of infection at graduation ceremonies and singing at entrance ceremonies. In the graduation ceremony, the risk of infection when measures were taken to wear masks only during singing was 0.000022 (2.2 persons per 100,000, or 0.019 persons per 865 participants in the assumed number of infected persons), and the average risk of infection among participants was reduced by about 45% when non-woven masks were worn during singing. Although the risk of infection at graduation and entrance ceremonies is low even without any countermeasures, a combination of various countermeasures will be effective if the infection rate in the community increases.
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Submitted: 2023-03-29 04:17:23 UTC
Published: 2023-03-31 10:49:28 UTC
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Tetsuo Yasutaka
Tsukasa Fujita
Wataru Naito
Masaki Onishi
Michio Murakami
Seiya Imoto
Tomoaki Okuda
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