Did Visitors Cause Outbreaks of COVID-19 Dominated by the Original Strain? Ex Post Evaluation of Long-Distance Travel Bans
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.226Keywords:
airport users, COVID-19, effective reproduction number, Go To Travel Campaign, hotel visitors, mobilityAbstract
Background: Long-distance travel was banned while the SARS-Cov-2 original strain was dominant. Nevertheless, that policy had not been adequately evaluated.
Object: We evaluated long-distance travel effects on infectivity, considering climate conditions, mobility, and countermeasures including the “Go To Travel Campaign” (GTTC) travel subsidy policy.
Method: We regressed the effective reproduction number R(t) on long-distance travel, temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as the emergency state declaration or GTTC in Kagoshima prefecture. The number of airport limousine bus users represented long-distance travel volumes. The study assessed data from May 16, 2020 through February 2022, before variant strains emerged and became dominant.
Results: Estimation results indicate declining infectivity along with long-distance travel volumes. Moreover, R(t) was lower during GTTC.
Discussion and Conclusion: Policies banning long-distance travel had little legitimacy or rationale. Long-distance travel with appropriate infection control measures did not spread COVID-19 infection in tourist areas.
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Submitted: 2022-12-02 01:16:45 UTC
Published: 2022-12-05 11:43:41 UTC
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Junko Kurita
Yoshitaro Iwasaki
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