DOI: https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-040
The relative roles of the sea surface temperature over the Pacific Meridional Mode and Indian Ocean on tropical cyclone genesis over the North Pacific in super El Niño of 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.71キーワード:
tropical cyclone、 El Niño、 Pacific Meridional Mode、 monsoon trough、 vertical shear抄録
This study reveals the relative roles of the sea surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean (IO) and the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) on tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the North Pacific (NP) by focusing on super El Niño event that occurred in 2015. We used the global non-hydrostatic model and conducted perpetual experiments as control for 30 months taking the climatological conditions of July 2015 to examine the sensitivities of SST in the IO and in the region of the PMM to TCG over NP. We showed that if the SST over the PMM region is warmer, the monsoon trough in the western North Pacific (WNP) and vertical wind shear over the Eastern North Pacific (ENP) become weaker, causing reduced TCG in the WNP and increased TCG in the ENP. We also showed that if the SST over the IO is warmer, the monsoon trough in the western North Pacific (WNP) become weaker, although the vertical wind shear over the ENP doesn’t become weaker. We found that with an increase in the SST in the IO or the PMM region, the anticyclonic anomalies over the WNP are intensifying. We confirmed that if the SST is warmer over the PMM region in the absence of the El Niño forcing, the cyclonic anomalies over the WNP is intensifying as in previous studies. Non-linearity was found for the forcing over the PMM region and the El Niño region.
ダウンロード *前日までの集計結果を表示します
引用文献
Bluden, J., and D. S. Arndt, Eds., 2016: State of the Climate in 2015. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (8), S1-S275, DOI:10.1175/2016BAMSStateoftheClimate.1
Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Climate, 18, 2996–3006, doi:10.1175/ JCLI3457.1.
Camargo, S. J., M. C. Wheeler and A. H. Sobel, 2009: Diagnosis of the tropical cyclogenesis using an empirical index. JAS, 75, 3061-3074, doi:10.1175/2009JAS3101.1.
Cess, R. D., and J. B. Klemp, 1988: A methodology for understanding and intercomparing atmospheric climate feedback processes in general circulation models. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 8305-8314. doi:10.1029/JD093iD07p08305.
Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone Activity over the western north Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2.
Chan. J. C. L., and K. S. Liu, 2004: Global warming and western north Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J. Climate, 17, 4590-4602, doi:10.1175/3240.1.
Chavas, D. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 2010: A QuikSCAT climatology of tropical cyclone size. Geophys. Res. Lett, 37, L18816, doi:10.1029/2010GL044558.
Chen, T. C., S. Y. Wang, and M. C. Yen, 2006: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 19, 5709–5720, doi:10.1175/JCLI3934.1.
Chiang, J. C. H., and D. J. Vimont, 2004: Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere–ocean variability. J. Climate, 17, 4143–4158, doi:10.1175/JCLI4953.1.
Emanuel, K. A., and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 240–241.
Gao, S., L. Zhu, W. Zhang, and Z. Chen, 2018: Strong modulation of the Pacific meridional mode on the occurrence of intense tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific. J. Climate, 31, 7739-7749, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0833.1.
Ha, Y., Z. Zhong, X. Yang and Y. Sun, 2015: Contribution of east Indian Ocean SSTA to western north Pacific tropical cyclone activity under El Niño/La Niña conditions. Int. J. Climatol, 35, 506-519, doi: 10.1002/joc.3997
Hong, C. –C., and M. –Y. Lee, H. –H. Hsu, and W. –L. Tseng, 2018: Distinct influences of the ENSO-like and PMM-like SST anomalies on the mean TC genesis location in the western north Pacific: the 2015 summer as an extreme example. J. Climate., 31, 3049-3059, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0504.1.
Iga, S., H. Tomita, Y. Tsushima, and M. Satoh, 2007: Climatology of a nonhydrostatic global model with explicit cloud processes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22814, doi:10.1029/2007GL031048.
Knaff, J. A., C. R. Sampson, M. Demaria, T. P. Marchok, J. M. Gross, and C J. Mcadie, 2007: Statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction using climatology and persistence. Wea. Forcasting, 22, 781-791, doi:10.1175/WAF1026.1.
Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 363–376, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1.
Kobayashi, S., Y. Ota, Y. Harada, A. Ebita, M. Moriya, H. Onoda, K. Onogi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo, K. Miyaoka, and K. Takahashi, 2015: The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 5-48, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-001.
Kodama, C., Y. Yamada, A. T. Noda, K. Kikuchi, Y. Kajikawa, T. Nasuno, T. Tomita, T. Yamaura, T. G. Takahashi, M. Hara, Y. Kawatani, M. Satoh, and M. Sugi, 2015: A 20-year climatology of a NICAM AMIP-type simulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93, 393-424, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-024
Lander, M. A., 1994: An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical strom formation in the western north Pacific and ENSO, Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 636-651, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0636:AEAOTR>2.0.CO;2.
L’Heureux M. L., K. Takahashi, A. B. Watkins, A. G. Barnston, E. J. Becker, T. E. T. E. Di Liberto, F. Gamble, J. Gottschalck, M. S. Halpert, B. Huang, K. Mosquera-Vásquez, and A. T. Wittenberg, 2016: Observing and predicting the 2015-16 El Niño. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 1363-1382, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0009.1.
Lin, I. I., C. C. Wu and I. F. Pun, 2008: Upper-ocean thermal structure and the western North Pacific category 5 typhoons. Part I: ocean Features and the category 5 typhoons’ Intensification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 3288-3306, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2277.1.
Oouchi, K., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda, 2006: Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20 km mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and intensity analysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 259-276, doi:10.2151/jmsj.84.259
Miura, H., M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, A. T. Noda and K. Oouchi, 2007: A Madden-Julian Oscillation event simulated using a global cloud-resolving model. Science, 318, 1763-1765. doi:10.1126/science.1148443
Miyakawa, T., M. Satoh, H. Miura, H., Yashiro, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, C. Kodama, M. Kimoto and K. Yoneyama, 2014: Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model. Nature Commun., 5, 3769. doi:10.1038/ncomms4769.
Miyakawa, T., H. Yashiro, T. Suzuki, H. Tatebe and M. Satoh, 2017: A Madden-Julian Oscillation event remotely accelerates ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate the 1997/1998 super El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., DOI:10.1002/2017GL074683
Murakami, H., G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, S. Underwood, R. Gudgel, X. Yang, L. Jia, F. Zeng, K. Paffendorf and W. Zhang, 2017: Dominat role of subtropical Pacific warming in extreme eastern Pacific seasons: 2015 and future. J. Climate, 30, 243-264, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0424.1.
Nakanishi, M. and H. Niino, 2004: An improved Mellor-Yamada Level-3 model with condensation physics: It’s design and verification. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 112, 1-31. doi:10.1023/B:BOUN.0000020164.04146.98.
Nakano, M., M. Sawada, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh, 2015: Intraseasonal variability and tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific simulated by a global nonhydrostatic atmospheric model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 565-571, doi:10.1002/2014GL062479.
Ritchie, E. A., and G. J. Holland, 1999: Large-scale patterns associated with tropical cyclogenesis in the western Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2027-2043, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2027:LSPAWT>2.0.CO;2
Satoh, M., T. Matsuno, H. Tomita, H. Miura, T. Nasuno, and S. Iga, 2008: Nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) for global cloud resolving simulations. J. Comput. Phys., 227, 3486–3514, doi: 10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.006
Satoh, M., H. Tomita, H. Yashiro, H. Miura, C. Kodama, T. Seiki, A. T. Noda, Y. Yamada, D. Goto, M. Sawada, T. Miyoshi, Y. Niwa, M. Hara, T. Ohno, S. Iga, T. Arakawa, T. Inoue and H. Kubokawa, 2014: The non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model: description and development. Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci. 1: 18, doi: 10.1186/s40645-014-0018-1.
Satoh, M., Y. Yamada, M. Sugi, C. Kodama and A. T. Noda, 2015: Constraint on future change in global frequency of tropical cyclones due to global warming.
J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 93, 489-500, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-025.
Satoh, M., H. Tomita, H. Yashiro, Y. Kajikawa, Y. Miyamoto, T. Yamaura, T. Miyakawa, M. Nakano, C. Kodama, A. T. Noda, T. Nasuno, Y. Yamada and Y. Fukutomi, 2017: Outcomes and challenges of global high-resolution non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations using the K computer. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 4, 13, doi:10.1186/s40645-017-0127-8.
Schade, L. R., and K. A. Emanuel, 1999: The ocean’s effect on the intensity of tropical cyclones: results from a simple coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 642-651, doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1999)056<0642:TOSEOT>2.0.CO;2.
Sekiguchi, M. and T. Nakajima, 2008: A k-distribution-based radiation code and its computational optimization for an atmospheric general circulation model. J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer., 109, 2779-2793, doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2008.07.013
Takasuka, D., T. Miyakawa, M. Satoh, H. Miura, 2015: Topographical effects on the internally produced MJO-like disturbances in an aqua-planet version of NICAM. SOLA, 11, 170-176, doi:10.2151/sola.2015-038
Takasuka, D., M. Satoh, T. Miyakawa and H. Miura, 2018: Initiation Processes of the Tropical Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an Aqua-planet Experiment: What is the Intrinsic Mechanism for MJO Onset? J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., accepted.
Takata, K., S. Emori, and T. Watanabe, 2003: Development of the minimal advanced treatments of surface interaction and runoff. Global. Planet. Change, 38, 209–222, doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00030-4
Timmermann, A., S. –I. An, J. –S. Kug, F. –F. Jin, W. Cai, A. Capotondi, K. Cobb. M. Lengaigne, M. J. McPhaden, M. F. Stuecker, K. Stein, A. T. Wittenberg, K. –S. Yun, T. Bayr, H. –C. Chen, Y. Chikamoto, B. Dewitte, Di. Dommenget, P. Grothe, E. Guilyardi, Y. –G. Ham, M. Hayashi, S. Ineson, D. Kang, S. Kim, W. Kim, A. Santoso, K. Takahashi, A. Todd, G. Wang, G. Wang, R. Xie, W. –H. Yang, S. –W. Yeh, J. Yoon, E. Zeller, and X. Zhang, 2018: El Niño-Southern oscillation complexity. Nature, 559, 535-545, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0252-6.
Tomita, H., and M. Satoh, 2004: A new dynamical framework of nonhydrostatic global model using the icosahedral grid. Fluid Dyn. Res., 34, 357–400, doi:10.1016/j.fluiddyn.2004.03.003
Tomita, H., 2008: New microphysical schemes with five and six categories by diagnostic generation of cloud ice. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86A, 121–142, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.86A.121
Walsh, K., M. Fiorino, C. W. Landsea, and K. L. McInnes, 2007: Obsjectively determined resolution-dependent threshold criteria for the detection of tropical cyclones in climate models and reanalyses. J. Climate, 20, 2307-2314, doi:10.1175/JCLI4074.1.
Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 1643–1658, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015,1643: HSEEAT.2.0.CO;2.
Wu, L., Z. Wen, R. Huang, and R. Wu, 2012: Possible linkage between the monsoon trough variability and the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 140–150, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00078.1.
Wu, Y. K., C. –C. Hong, and C. –T. Chen, 2018: Distict effects of the two strong El Niño events in 2015-2016 and 1997-1998 on the western north Pacific monsoon and tropical cyclone activity: role of subtropical eastern north Pacific warm SSTA. J. Geophys. Res., 123, doi:10.1002/2018JC013798.
Xie, S.-P., K. Hu, J. Hafner, H. Tokinaga, Y. Du, G. Huang, and T. Sampe, 2009: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo– western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 730–747, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1.
Yamada, Y., M. Satoh, M. Sugi, C. Kodama, A. T. Noda, M. Nakano and T. Nasuno, 2017: Response of tropical cyclone activity and structure to global warming in a high-resolution global nonhydrostatic model. J. Clim., 30, 9703-9724, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0068.1.
Yamada, Y., C. Kodama, M. Satoh, M. Nakano, T. Nasuno, and M. Sugi, 2019: High-resolution ensemble simulations of intense tropical cyclones and their internal variability during the El Ninos of 1997 and 2015. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 7592-7601, doi:10.1029/2019GL082086.
Yoshida, R., and H. Ishikawa, 2013: Environmental factors contributing to tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 451-467, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00309.1.
Yoshizaki, M., S. Iga and M. Satoh, 2012: Eastward-propagating property of large-scale precipitation systems simulated in the coarse-resolution NICAM and an explanation of its formation. SOLA, 8, 21-24. doi:10.2151/sola.2012-006
Zhan, R., Y. Wang, and C. C. Wu, 2011: Impact of SSTA in the East Indian Ocean on the frequency of northwest Pacific tropical cyclones: A regional atmospheric model. J. Climate, 24, 6227–6242, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05014.1.
Zhan, R., Y. Wang and Q. Liu, 2017: Salient differences in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific between 1998 and 2016. J. Climate, 30, 9979-9997, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0263.1.
Zhang, W., G. A. Vecchi, H. Murakami, G. Villarini, and L. Jia, 2016: The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 29, 381–398, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1.
ダウンロード
公開済
投稿日時: 2022-05-16 07:34:59 UTC
公開日時: 2022-05-18 01:48:20 UTC
ライセンス
Copyright（c）2022
Takahiro Ishiyama
Satoh, Masaki
Yohei Yamada
この作品は、Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licenseの下でライセンスされています。
