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Direction of Tornado Movement and Its Relationship with the Large-scale Wind Field

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.554

キーワード:

tornado、 direction of movement、 circular statisttics、 typhoon、 supercell

抄録

According to Niino et al. (1997), more than half of tornadoes in Japan between 1961 and 1993 moved toward the northeast quadrant. Since their data was based on eyewitness reports, however, the resulting directions of tornado movements were biased toward 8 directions (e.g., N, NE, E) out of 16 (e.g., N, NNE, NE, ENE). Using latitudes and longitudes of the starting and end points of tornado damage paths in the database of gusty winds of the Japan Meteorological Agency, our study objectively examined the statistics of the direction of tornado movement and its relation with the large-scale wind field.

The analysis revealed that approximately 70% of tornadoes moved toward the northeast quadrant in accord with the previous study. The preference for the northeastward movement remains similar for both periods of 1961-1993 and 1994-2023, although the Japan Meteorological Agency changed several times their operation to collect tornado report data. This northeast preference consists of eastward and northward peaks. The eastward peak is caused by cumulonimbus clouds that are steered by the mid-tropospheric westerly winds to the first order. The northward peak, which is more frequent in JJA and SON, is associated with typhoon-associated tornadoes.

Tornado movement directions and environmental winds at around 750 hPa are significantly correlated, presumably indicating that tornadoes generally move along with their parent cumulonimbus clouds, which are steered by the mid-tropospheric environmental wind.
To examine this mechanism, we compared movement directions of tornadoes with those of supercells estimated by the method of Bunkers et al. (2000), in which the shear and mean wind between 700 and 1000 hPa are used. The mean tornado movement direction is displaced by 21° to the left of the estimated supercell movement. The standard deviation of the directional difference is 36°. This result is consistent with previous studies indicating that not all tornadoes in Japan are of the supercell type.

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The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

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投稿日時: 2023-11-11 01:45:08 UTC

公開日時: 2023-11-15 01:41:33 UTC — 2026-04-01 03:56:21 UTCに更新

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査読に対応し、また、共著者を増やして改訂したため。
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地球科学・天文学

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Copyright（c）2023 Mita, Yuri
Tsubasa Kohyama
Hiroshi Niino

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