Analysis of the Factors that Led to an uncertainty of track forecast of Typhoon Krosa (2019) by 101-member ensemble forecast experiments using NICAM
キーワード:tropical cyclone、 track forecast、 Fujiwhara effect、 forecast bust、 western North Pacific subtropical high
Typhoon Krosa (2019) formed in the eastern part of the Philippines Sea and ~1400 km east of another typhoon Lekima on August 6th and made a landfall in the western part of Japan’s mainland on August 15th. The operational global model forecasts, which were initialized just after Krosa’s formation, showed a very large uncertainty and totally failed to predict the actual track of Krosa. In this study, we investigated the causes of this large uncertainty through 101-member ensemble forecast experiments by using a 28-km mesh global nonhydrostatic model. The experiments initialized at 12 UTC, August 6th, showed a large uncertainty. An ensemble-based sensitivity analysis indicated that the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) retreated further east in the members with large track forecast errors than in the members with small errors. The members with a large track forecast error for Krosa, Krosa and Lekima approached by 250 km and Krosa propagated northward faster than the observation in 36 hours from the initialization time. For the members with a small track forecast error for Krosa, two typhoons approached by only 50 km, and the northward propagation speed was comparable with that of the observation. The typhoon relative composite analysis exhibited that at the initialization time, the members with a large Krosa track forecast error had a larger horizontal size of Krosa and higher moisture in the east of Krosa’s center. The difference in Krosa’s size was kept during the forecast period, and precipitation was larger in the outer region for the members with a large Krosa’s track error. This difference led to a stronger interaction between the two typhoons, thus resulting in a fast northward propagation speed for the members with a large Krosa track error.
Ancell, B., and G. J. Hakim, 2007: Comparing Adjoint- and Ensemble-Sensitivity Analysis with Applications to Observation Targeting. Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 4117–4134, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1904.1.
Bougeault, P., and Coauthors, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1059–1072, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2853.1.
Brand, S., 1970: Interaction of Binary Tropical Cyclones of the Western North Pacific Ocean. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 9, 433–441, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0433:IOBTCO>2.0.CO;2.
Camp, J., and Coauthors, 2019: The western Pacific subtropical high and tropical cyclone landfall: Seasonal forecasts using the Met Office GloSea5 system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 145, 105–116, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3407.
Choi, K.-S., C.-C. Wu, and E.-J. Cha, 2010: Change of tropical cyclone activity by Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern in the western North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res., 115, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jd013866.
Choi, Y., D.-H. Cha, M.-I. Lee, J. Kim, C.-S. Jin, S.-H. Park, and M.-S. Joh, 2017: Satellite radiance data assimilation for binary tropical cyclone cases over the western N orth P acific. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 832–853, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ms000826.
Fujiwhara, S., 1921: The natural tendency towards symmetry of motion and its application as a principle in meteorology. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 47, 287–292, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49704720010.
——, 1923: On the growth and decay of vortical systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 49, 75–104, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49704920602.
Honda, T., and Coauthors, 2018: Assimilating All-Sky Himawari-8 Satellite Infrared Radiances: A Case of Typhoon Soudelor (2015). Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 213–229, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0357.1.
Hunt, B. R., E. J. Kostelich, and I. Szunyogh, 2007: Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal chaos: A local ensemble transform Kalman filter. Physica D, 230, 112–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2006.11.008.
Japan Meteorological Agency, 2020: Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 2019. 115 pp. https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/AnnualReport/2019/Text/Text2019.pdf.
Kawamura, R., and T. Ogasawara, 2006: On the Role of Typhoons in Generating PJ Teleconnection Patterns over the Western North Pacific in Late Summer. SOLA, 2, 37–40, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2006-010.
Kikuchi, K., 2021: The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO): A Review. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, advpub, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2021-045.
Kodama, C., and Coauthors, 2021: The Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model for CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations (NICAM16-S): experimental design, model description, and impacts of model updates. Geoscientific Model Development, 14, 795–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-795-2021.
Kotsuki, S., K. Terasaki, K. Kanemaru, M. Satoh, T. Kubota, and T. Miyoshi, 2019: Predictability of record-breaking rainfall in Japan in july 2018: Ensemble forecast experiments with the near-real-time global atmospheric data assimilation system NEXRA. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 15, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.2151/SOLA.15A-001.
Lu, R., and B. Dong, 2001: Westward Extension of North Pacific Subtropical High in Summer. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 79, 1229–1241, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.79.1229.
Magnusson, L., J.-R. Bidlot, S. T. K. Lang, A. Thorpe, N. Wedi, and M. Yamaguchi, 2014: Evaluation of Medium-Range Forecasts for Hurricane Sandy. Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 1962–1981, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00228.1.
Minamide, M., and F. Zhang, 2018: Assimilation of All-Sky Infrared Radiances from Himawari-8 and Impacts of Moisture and Hydrometer Initialization on Convection-Permitting Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Mon. Weather Rev., 146, 3241–3258, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0367.1.
Nakano, M., and Coauthors, 2017: Global 7 km mesh nonhydrostatic Model Intercomparison Project for improving TYphoon forecast (TYMIP-G7): experimental design and preliminary results. Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 1363–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1363-2017.
Nakano, M., F. Vitart, and K. Kikuchi, 2021: Impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on typhoon tracks in the western north pacific and the prediction skill of the ECMWF model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091505.
Nakashita, S., and T. Enomoto, 2021: Factors for an Abrupt Increase in Track Forecast Error of Typhoon Hagibis (2019). SOLA, advpub, https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.17A-006.
Nakazawa, T., and K. Rajendran, 2007: Relationship between Tropospheric Circulation over the Western North Pacific and Tropical Cyclone Approach/Landfall on Japan. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 85, 101–114, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.85.101.
Nitta, T., 1987: Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impact on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 65, 373–390.
Peng, M. S., 2005: Double trouble for typhoon forecasters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl021680.
Roh, W., and M. Satoh, 2014: Evaluation of Precipitating Hydrometeor Parameterizations in a Single-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme for Deep Convective Systems over the Tropical Central Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 2654–2673, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0252.1.
Satoh, M., and Coauthors, 2014: The Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model: description and development. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 1, 1–32, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-014-0018-1.
Swinbank, R., and Coauthors, 2016: The TIGGE Project and Its Achievements. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 49–67, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00191.1.
Torn, R. D., and G. J. Hakim, 2008: Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis. Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2132.1.
Wang, B., and H. Rui, 1990: Synoptic climatology of transient tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies: 1975-1985. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 44, 43–61, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01026810.
Wang, B., and X. Xie, 1997: A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 72–86, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0072:AMFTBS>2.0.CO;2.
投稿日時: 2022-04-08 01:37:44 UTC
公開日時: 2022-04-11 02:16:55 UTC
この作品は、Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Licenseの下でライセンスされています。