ENSO impacts on global yields of major crops projected by a climate-crop model ensemble

John  Harrington-Tsunogai; Michiya  Hayashi; Hideo  Shiogama; Takahiro  Takimoto; Wonsik  Kim; Toshichika Iizumi

doi:10.51094/jxiv.1159

##article.authors##

John Harrington-Tsunogai College of Geoscience, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
Michiya Hayashi Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies
Hideo Shiogama Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies
Takahiro Takimoto Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
Wonsik Kim Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
Toshichika Iizumi Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51094/jxiv.1159

キーワード:

Agriculture、 Climate change、 Climate impact、 Climate variability、 Global gridded crop model

抄録

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) likely continues to be the main mode of natural climate variability in a warmer climate. However, it is currently not known how the ENSO impacts on major crop yields would change in response to future climate change. Here, we present the projected ENSO impacts on yields of maize, wheat, rice and soybean in the middle (2035–2064) and end (2065–2094) of the 21st century under low (SSP126) and high (SSP585) warming scenarios. The climate-crop model ensemble used is limited in its ability to simulate the historical ENSO impacts, with variation by crop and ENSO phase. Particularly, the model ensemble’s ability was found to be low for rice and soybean. Consequently, the analysis presented here is restricted to wheat in the La Niña years and maize in the El Niño and La Niña years. The results indicate that ENSO would continue to be a noticeable driver of yield variations, both positively and negatively, for some crops and regions. For example, we detect projected positive maize yield impact in North America and the negative maize yield impact in eastern Brazil due to El Niño, although these projected impacts vary by time period and warming levels. Improvements to both climate and crop models are required to capture the process chains from ocean to atmosphere to agro-environment to crop productivity and help cropping systems better prepare for future climate risks.

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The authors have no cometeing interest to declear.

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